E. Pacific Hurricane Tracking -
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Tropical Depression ALETTA Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012000 WTPZ31 KNHC 180232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 800 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012 ...ALETTA LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 114.3W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression ALETTA Forecast/Advisory Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 18 2012000 WTPZ21 KNHC 180232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 0300 UTC FRI MAY 18 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 114.3W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 114.3W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.9N 114.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.1N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.1N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.7N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.8N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression ALETTA Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180232 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 800 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012 DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED OVER AND AROUND THE CENTER OF ALETTA A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE ON THE WANE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LACK BANDING FEATURES...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB GIVE AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND VERY DRY AIR LIES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. AS THIS AIR BECOMES MORE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF ALETTA...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY FORECAST. THE CYCLONE SHOULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN 3-4 DAYS OR SOONER AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST. THE HEADING OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO VEER TO THE RIGHT... WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW ABOUT 020/5. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT ALETTA OR ITS REMNANT WILL TURN EASTWARD DUE TO LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.6N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 13.9N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 14.1N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 14.1N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 13.7N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z 12.8N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression ALETTA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 18 2012
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 180232
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
0300 UTC FRI MAY 18 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 7 16 31 32 35 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 80 58 49 45 41 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 13 25 19 23 23 NA NA
HURRICANE X 1 1 1 2 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 1 2 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression ALETTA Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 May 2012 02:33:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 May 2012 03:03:44 GMT
Tropical Depression ALETTA Advisory 15 Forecast Track, Cone, Watches/Warnings (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 18 May 2012 02:32:46 GMT
Tropical Depression ALETTA Advisory 15 Forecast Track (.kmz)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 18 May 2012 02:32:48 GMT
Tropical Depression ALETTA Advisory 15 Forecast Cone of Uncertainty (.kmz)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 18 May 2012 02:32:48 GMT
Tropical Depression ALETTA Best Track Information (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 18 May 2012 02:31:56 GMT
Tropical Depression ALETTA Best Track Information (.kmz)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 18 May 2012 02:31:56 GMT
Tropical Depression ALETTA Forecast Information (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:30:39 GMT
Tropical Depression ALETTA Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.5 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 18 May 2012 03:04:06 GMT
Tropical Depression ALETTA Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 18 May 2012 03:04:05 GMT
Cyclone Information by XML (protoype)
Issued at Fri, 18 May 2012 02:32:02 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format WILL change without notice.
East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180531
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 705 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS
INCREASING AND GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
